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Economics 309-The Use and Interpretation of Economic Data
Dr. Halcoussis Fall 2010
Business School 4257
Website: dennishalcoussis.com
Email: dhalcoussis@csun.edu
Office Hours: Tuesday and Thursdays 10:30-11:00, 2:00-2:30.
Thursday only: 5:50-6:50.
If you can’t come to any of these times, you can make an appointment.
No appointment is necessary during regularly scheduled office hours.
Prerequisites: Econ 160 and 161; SOM 120 or equivalent.
Goals. The main goals of this course are to:
1. Understand economic statistics and regression results.
2. Be able to communicate with economic statistics and regression results effectively.
3. Understand how and why statistics are misused.
Course Requirements: 1. Excel Regression Assignment
2. Midterm: October 21.
3. Presentation
4. Cumulative Final Exam: 12:45-2:45, December 9.
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More details about these requirements will be posted in your webcourse account (see other side) during the semester.
Two different methods will be used to calculate your grade, and you will receive the higher of the two grades.
Method 1 Method 2
Excel Regression assignment: 10% Excel Regression assignment: 10%
Midterm: 35% Midterm: 42.5%
Presentation: 5% Presentation: 5%
Final: 50% Final: 42.5%
Exams: You must bring your CSUN Identification to all exams. No "make-up" exams will be given. All students must take the final exam. If you are ill for the midterm, you must provide a verifiable excuse written by a doctor on her letterhead or prescription pad. In this case, you will be excused from the midterm and the final will be worth 85%. If an acceptable excuse is not provided, you will receive a "0" on that midterm exam. If there is some other reason why you must miss the midterm, you must obtain permission before the exam, otherwise you will receive a "0." Do not miss the midterm thinking that you will be exempt from this rule.
Straight letter grades will be given; no "+" or "-".
Students are expected to observe the student conduct code (see the CSUN catalog); any form of academic dishonesty will result in failure in the class and full prosecution by the University. Students are also expected to respect the rights of other students to participate fully in the classroom learning environment, and therefore, are not to disrupt that environment.
Class attendance is not required. In accordance with the policy above, if you choose to attend class, you agree that you will not leave the class early without prior permission of the instructor.
See other side for topics and reading list.
Topics. The following topics will be covered in the class. This list is subject to change.
I. Interpretation of Regression Results (including a review of relevant basic statistical theory.)
II. Organizing Economic Data.
III. Economic Indicators.
IV. Misleading Uses of Statistics in the Media.
V. Misleading Graphics in Financial Reporting.
VI. Economic Mythology vs. Reality.
Books.
There is no textbook for the class. For topics I and II, you may want to consult:
Understanding Econometrics, Dennis Halcoussis, Cengage/Southwestern. I did not order this book for this class because we are only covering about 3-4 chapters worth of material from it. You can access selected chapters of this book from your Webcourse account (see below). It is also on Reserve with the books listed below. The book is also available in Korean.
For the rest of the class, the following books are on reserve under the instructor’s name at the Reserve Book Desk in Oviatt library. A Guide to Everyday Economic Statistics (see below) is also available at the university bookstore. If you want to purchase any of these books, they can be purchased from your favorite Internet bookseller.
Calculated Risks, Gerd Gigerenzer, Simon & Schuster Publishers, 2002.
The Cult of Statistical Significance, Stephen T. Ziliak and Deidre N. McCloskey, Univ. of Michigan Press, 2009. (Not in library as of Aug. 2010.)
Damned Lies and Statistics, Joel Best, University of California Press, 2001.
Dollars & Nonsense, Stephen Moore and Richard Noyes, editors, Media Research Center, 2001.
A Guide to Everyday Economic Statistics, 7th ed., Gary E. Clayton, Giesbrecht, and Guo, McGraw-Hill Irwin Publishers, 2010.
How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff, W.W. Norton & Co., 1954.
It Ain’t Necessarily So, David Murray, Joel Schwartz, and S. Robert Lichter, Roman & Littlefield Publishers, 2001.
Junk Science Judo, Steven J. Milloy, Cato Institute, 2001.
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper, John Allen Paulos, Anchor Books, 1995.
More Damned Lies and Statistics, Joel Best, University of California Press, 2004.
Stat-Spotting: A Field Guide to Identifying Dubious Data, Joel Best, University of California Press, 2008.
The Numbers Game, Michael Blastland and Andrew Dilnot,Gotham Books, 2009.
Webcourse
We will be using a site called Webcourse, at http://www.dennishalcoussis.com/webcourse. You will need to set up an account to use the site. Instructions on how to do this are at dennishalcoussis.com. The Webcourse site will provide you with selected chapters from Understanding Econometrics along with information you will need for the regression assignment. It’s free.
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